I thought it would be interesting to look at some of the online gambling sites and see what they are offering in terms of odds for either Obama or McCain, should you want to back up your prediction by putting a few bucks on it. To me, this election still seems like it could go either way with a lot riding on what happens in the next few weeks. The oddsmakers disagree with me. They think it's extremely likely that our next President will be Barack Obama.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
If you want to bet on McCain, you can make money faster than by being the CEO of Blackwater during a Bush Administration. Put a cool 10 mil down on Johnny Mac and take home $15,000,000 on November 5th. Five million dollars never came so easily!
I only mention this because these are some very serious analysts of the American electoral process. Unlike Keith Olbermann or Joe Scarborough, they actually can lose a lot of money if they are wrong. They are in business and not looking to give away money. If they are offering a buck fifty for your dollar bet, they are pretty sure what the result is going to be. Of course they are wrong "all the time". But what you don't see is the precentage of times that they nail compared to the times they are wrong. They could be wrong this time, but they're in the business of being right. Bet on it.
Some non-gamblers think it's even more of a sure thing. Polling site FiveThirtyEight, based on how things are shaping up from an electoral point of view, currently has Obama taking in 311.5 electoral votes (270 needed to elect) and rates his chances of winning at 74.4%.
Hey, I hope all of this is accurate. I'll still be one surprised guy if Obama wins - let alone so easily. These are, after all, the Democrats running against the GOP machine.
posted - 10:43 PM